When President Trump took the stage in New Mexico on Monday night, he projected confidence about his chances at winning the blue state.

“We really think we’re going to turn this state and make it a Republican state,” Trump said onstage at the Santa Ana Star Center in Rio Rancho.

But while many of the thousands of New Mexico residents who came out to see him say they love their president, they don’t share his confidence. Trump lost New Mexico to Hillary Clinton by eight points, and since he took office, his net approval there has decreased by 34 percentage points, according to the Morning Consult voter tracking poll. New Mexico hasn’t gone for a Republican president since 2004, and even then, Republican George W. Bush beat Democrat John Kerry by less than 6,000 votes.

“No, I don’t,” says supporter Dwayne McFarland when asked if he thinks Trump can win New Mexico, while waiting in line hours before the rally. “He’s going to turn the tide and it’s going to be closer, because I think a lot of people have seen what he has done.” But, McFarland laments, “It’s too liberal of a state.”


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